Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c9e76cd469379e5c30d26ce024e25a2f1c5a8606c2c1f951c03ac9d9a94ce63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 17c | 863.36$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 670.83$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 18c | 485.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 453.14$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 449.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 430.2$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 426.77$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 392.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 30c | 379.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 305.33$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 274.62$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 18c | 205.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 77c | 203.4$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 201.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…7f86backed Yes | 21c | 199.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 197.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 22c | 189.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 27c | 184.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 184.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 21c | 150.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 149.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 22c | 124.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 123.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 25c | 119.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 20c | 108.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 23c | 104.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…fa6abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b2…4b3dbacked Yes | 41c | 95.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 29c | 95.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 95.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 80c | 94.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 24c | 88.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 74.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 16c | 69.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…0f31backed Yes | 24c | 65.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b2…cf28backed No | 80c | 63.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 77c | 63.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed No | 80c | 61.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 32c | 55.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 55.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…c329backed Yes | 24c | 52.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 80c | 51.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81cb…7d84backed Yes | 24c | 50.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 46.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 55c | 46.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…6e80backed Yes | 24c | 45.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 79c | 45.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 71c | 41.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 76c | 38.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 37.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 37.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked No | 75c | 37.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked Yes | 30c | 36.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…09d2backed No | 79c | 35.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 72c | 35.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 75c | 34.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 76c | 32.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…ac33backed No | 76c | 32.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 77c | 31.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 78c | 30.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…c067backed Yes | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 59cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 27.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…5c07backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 22.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 74c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 77c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153f…cb70backed No | 77c | 17.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 79c | 16.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b9…e5e8backed No | 78c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 78c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 78c | 13.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.