Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a7a86a7614d5b9231a1484915bc201acb51af194540ec5de33263f06e29ae6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 1c | 1,340$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 32c | 1,123$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.12 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 53c | 973.42$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.52 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 855.12$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 19c | 784.77$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.53 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 29c | 727.8$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 72c | 718.33$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.13 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 34c | 699.21$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.95 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 668.15$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 8c | 520.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 80c | 492.55$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 41c | 491.08$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 20c | 462.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked No | 28c | 454.68$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 75c | 397$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 77c | 363.56$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 73c | 329.61$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 63c | 307.66$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 63c | 304.47$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.81 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 57c | 300$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed No | 40c | 299.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 40c | 291.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…7f86backed Yes | 71c | 273.37$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c2…1dddbacked No | 53c | 238.18$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 234.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 10c | 233.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 42c | 230.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 22c | 225.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 78c | 207.17$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 200.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 68c | 197.9$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 40c | 190.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 190.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 72c | 189.94$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 51c | 186.76$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 44c | 163.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 38c | 163.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 20c | 161.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 77c | 159.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 51c | 147.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…3d00backed Yes | 65c | 145.04$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 144.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 27c | 143.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 34c | 142.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 68c | 142.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 31c | 141.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 71c | 139.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed Yes | 78c | 128.92$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 63c | 125.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 35c | 125$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 21c | 122.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 119.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 32c | 116.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 17c | 111.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 65c | 103.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 101.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 61c | 99.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 70c | 99.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 54c | 98.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 46c | 97.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 17c | 96.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 61c | 92.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 91.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 45c | 90.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 70c | 90.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 69c | 90.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 45c | 86.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 38c | 85.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 68c | 84.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…a789backed No | 20c | 82.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 75c | 79.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 73c | 79.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0625…5801backed Yes | 74c | 78.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 57c | 78.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…1d37backed No | 25c | 77.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 57c | 77.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked Yes | 70c | 74.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…4a8bbacked No | 30c | 72.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…5c07backed No | 38c | 72.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 15c | 71.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 71.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…5928backed Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 42c | 69.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 60c | 68.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a1…b6d5backed No | 48c | 67.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…8316backed Yes | 78c | 62.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 53c | 60.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 66c | 60.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 70c | 59.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 59.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 56.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 31c | 56.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.