Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cabb880ca4e5435d6e40c9ad4de6580557fc6f6ab937d962d06d4316c40cbe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 739.67$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.08 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 684.16$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 554.17$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 14c | 495.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 5c | 470.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 365.67$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 11c | 315.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 314.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 28c | 296$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 74c | 267.94$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 256.54$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633a…844dbacked Yes | 38c | 236.62$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 7c | 218.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 176.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 155.6$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 21c | 122.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 74c | 118$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 116$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 13c | 113.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 21c | 110.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 18c | 95.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 84.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…aa66backed Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 74c | 70.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 56c | 69.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 67.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 30c | 65.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 47.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 31c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 77c | 36.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 72c | 35.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 44c | 33.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 31.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 71c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.