Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f0b4c12c95dc27b62358c0ebe94adff8bc590821922155ab99a1cc60da076a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 67c | 4,242$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.06 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 1,099$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 899.69$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…7edabacked No | 75c | 864.76$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.67 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 852.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 836.03$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 701.65$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 590$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…523fbacked Yes | 38c | 539.29$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 505.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 65c | 497.16$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.87 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 12c | 388.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 302$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 16c | 283.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 28c | 250$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 35c | 234.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 200.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 191.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e9…57f2backed Yes | 17c | 172.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 169.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 26c | 168.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 75c | 160.64$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 160.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 12c | 158.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 156.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 34c | 155$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 151.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 7c | 150.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 113.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 74c | 98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 95.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 94.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 73c | 81.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 72c | 79.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 74.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 69c | 72.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 73c | 54.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 27c | 52.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…aa66backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 24c | 49.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 22c | 48.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 48.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 24c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 73c | 41.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 67c | 40.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4095…24e2backed No | 67c | 38.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 34.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…aceabacked Yes | 35c | 32.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…65cfbacked No | 67c | 25.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 24.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 17.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 65c | 15.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.