TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,595
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,799

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,595 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes43c2,869$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.9917536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes60c1,000$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.631,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes69c993.72$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.0518945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ca…523fbacked Yes66c949.14$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.71450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes51c815.04$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.661,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes54c801.8$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.74,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed Yes52c778.81$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.6511148.6%54 W · 57 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2856845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.4wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No58c482$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.561,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No51c438$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.414,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No6c415.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.966219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes53c361.48$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.281,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2856…c8f9backed Yes69c360.63$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.074753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes67c308$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.965,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.626744.8%30 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No29c291.51$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.244,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No51c290.97$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.362,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No41c257.51$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.692,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c250.45$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes44c193.96$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.8731454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked Yes55c183$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2417352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No58c180$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.41,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes39c172.3$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.89,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No33c158.61$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7544366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No41c155.6$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.625,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No44c147.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.594,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No15c124.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.164,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes60c123.33$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.584839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c119.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.65,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes52c116.18$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.341,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c114.16$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No48c112.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8221451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked No40c105.88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9528441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes38c105.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9628344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes76c102.66$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3868335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a8…d964backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4222645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c93.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.749,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No41c90.65$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.214,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No41c90.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.891,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No51c80.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.811,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes54c79.81$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4657948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No61c79.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.248,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed No24c77.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5429219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes41c70.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No57c69.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes78c68.73$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9613588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No46c67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.552,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No44c60.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No42c59.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2527247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No32c59.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.32,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25bd…9441backed No43c54.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.051442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes62c53.28$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.333828.9%11 W · 27 L-6.8wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-44.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9aa8…5e72backed No40c51.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.85137.3%19 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.546457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbe…c224backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…56b7backed No48c49.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244759.6%28 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56d1…1baabacked No51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-68.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No30c48.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.631,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe373…3736backed Yes57c47.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.551250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No41c44.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.552,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes80c44.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.912,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.290555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6553353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.63,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c36.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.566,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes37c36.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2333232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55bc…52d8backed Yes49c36.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.576839.7%27 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No42c35.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.062,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No51c34.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5128360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd404…4e3bbacked Yes63c31.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.651241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No43c31.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.412,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes64c31.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1945675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No38c30.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3694552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No36c30.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6942762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No37c30.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.110345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1520750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0e…8110backed No51c29.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes50c28.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.443,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No49c28.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7977851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes43c27.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.721,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes70c25.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.777835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No42c25.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.751,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No50c25.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.541,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2523547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No46c23.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7425954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No56c22.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8152758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No50c20.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.451,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.628649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes64c18.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7720144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952d…ab8abacked Yes69c18.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.71560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.