Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Disguised vs. Shopify Rebellion
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce0d64568721cecdf649d47d46981ecc86c4cddb15577bed2c13b97fdfc7188
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellionof Disguised, Shopify Rebellion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Disguised | 55c | 3,759$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.79 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Shopify Rebellion | 39c | 2,566$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.58 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee3…58b2backed Disguised | 34c | 2,400$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…fb1bbacked Disguised | 72c | 1,352$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Shopify Rebellion | 69c | 1,350$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.5 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Disguised | 16c | 734.84$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 91 | 27.5%25 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Disguised | 18c | 684.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Shopify Rebellion | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 274 | 52.2%143 W · 131 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Shopify Rebellion | 64c | 406.01$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.18 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Disguised | 16c | 399.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Shopify Rebellion | 64c | 151.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Shopify Rebellion | 54c | 134.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Disguised | 16c | 129.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Shopify Rebellion | 79c | 126.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 153 | 70.6%108 W · 45 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…d8bebacked Shopify Rebellion | 26c | 125.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed Shopify Rebellion | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…8230backed Shopify Rebellion | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Disguised | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…9fcfbacked Disguised | 71c | 47.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…d552backed Shopify Rebellion | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 386 | 24.4%94 W · 292 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.