Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce47aaf2cb635ae77c9b71b52d1ca4d0679e60044fb52737923f802f16d4494
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb989…1404backed No | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 1c | 1,857$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed No | 1c | 1,262$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 710.1$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 6c | 693.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.85 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 365.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 10c | 360.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 327.18$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 60c | 317.01$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.47 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 32c | 258.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.06 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 69c | 257.7$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.06 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 233.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 11c | 232$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 44c | 225.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.46 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 222.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 12c | 209.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.46 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 9c | 207.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.54 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 204.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…8786backed Yes | 7c | 185.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +608.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 15c | 166.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.87 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 154.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 18c | 136.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 135.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 16c | 122.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 119.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…0194backed Yes | 13c | 116.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 13c | 100.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 70.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 34c | 59.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 77c | 59.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 30c | 44.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 29c | 35.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 31c | 33.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 75c | 20.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.