Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19aecf0ab25493d9fc2b27bbbb67535c1814e5ef6ab698a142e60066c452cc88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a96…7babbacked Yes | 1c | 1,191$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 79c | 1,043$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.68 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 578.54$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.06 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 350.63$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 200.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 29c | 199.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 10c | 182.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 164.11$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 79c | 160$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 66c | 154.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 123.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 120.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 116.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 106$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 25c | 101.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 90.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 87.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked No | 71c | 84.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 31c | 83.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 66c | 82.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 80.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 72.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 56.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 55.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked Yes | 47c | 55.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 52.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 50.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 38c | 50.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 40c | 50.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 41.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 68c | 36.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 35.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 69c | 34.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 67c | 33.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 66c | 33.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 32.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 59c | 31.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 35c | 29.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 29.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 28.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 66c | 25.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 67c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 67c | 22.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 69c | 20.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c6…5fadbacked No | 70c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 66c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed No | 73c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 67c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…337abacked No | 68c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 66c | 16.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked No | 70c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.