Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01a8fba97fefdea989d63edadeec574941d816140cb08b07e0c6693b12a76a60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 37c | 999.93$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 30c | 809.18$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.95 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 573.76$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 42c | 399.12$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.56 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed Yes | 67c | 366.36$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.73 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 73c | 351.48$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.26 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 343.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 331.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 69c | 323.93$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.37 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 68c | 294.73$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.22 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 289.52$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed Yes | 70c | 277.35$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.3 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 64c | 262.15$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.03 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 68c | 249.69$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 37c | 224$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 200.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 199.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 76c | 162.36$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 57c | 149.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 33c | 148$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.85 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8417…fde5backed Yes | 74c | 142.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 54c | 119$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 117.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 115.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…c756backed Yes | 73c | 113.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 25c | 111.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 18c | 103$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 70c | 99.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 33c | 92.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 92.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 45c | 90.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 27c | 89.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 27c | 89.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 56c | 84.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 64c | 82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 32c | 79.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 74c | 78.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 32c | 77.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 38c | 75.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 69c | 71.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 34c | 71.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…73a4backed No | 41c | 71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 72c | 69.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 64c | 62.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 45c | 61.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 33c | 61.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 35c | 60.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 68c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 31c | 55.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 55.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 30c | 55.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 29c | 54.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 39c | 53.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked No | 50c | 52.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 64c | 50.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 38c | 50.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 62c | 49.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 64c | 48.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 75c | 48.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 68c | 47.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 47.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 32c | 46.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 66c | 42.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 37c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 60c | 41.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 53c | 39.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 59c | 39.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 66c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 47c | 37.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 36.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 58c | 36.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 37c | 34.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 33.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 32.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.