Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce7b4c645d02fcd61c3095dbd9e9adaed4d07f4204c82386d2d1f28ee0f70e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 4,133$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.59 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 23c | 1,235$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.65 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…c3eabacked Under | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 65c | 739$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.35 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 35c | 545.85$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.8 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 350.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.92 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 299.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.03 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a78…f457backed Over | 65c | 220.69$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d37…0748backed Over | 65c | 211.97$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…f258backed Over | 65c | 206.23$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa617…d842backed Over | 65c | 190.92$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4289…3df1backed Over | 65c | 178.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e3…9c9bbacked Over | 65c | 178.45$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 35c | 171.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…3054backed Over | 65c | 167.68$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95b…188ebacked Over | 65c | 166.85$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Over | 65c | 162.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb447…8582backed Over | 65c | 161.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…e35fbacked Over | 65c | 160.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb571…effdbacked Over | 65c | 160.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…6f8abacked Over | 65c | 157.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 65c | 153.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Under | 54c | 130.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 27c | 126.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9eb…8be1backed Over | 65c | 106.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…7c6bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 36c | 95.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Over | 44c | 90.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 53c | 89.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 28c | 89.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 39c | 61.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 61c | 61.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over | 58c | 53.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…f2cebacked Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 44c | 46.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 51c | 44.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…96febacked Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b0…222bbacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 65c | 28.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 65c | 25.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f9…6e1dbacked Over | 66c | 16.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.