Serie A · resolved market
Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cfcc474ea3abd5917546e2d67865d60049baca2f42f16e9476b5024a95b66b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- US Cremoneseof SS Lazio, US Cremonese
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe33b…c8f2backed SS Lazio | 17c | 492.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked SS Lazio | 4c | 336.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…3469backed SS Lazio | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked SS Lazio | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…d702backed SS Lazio | 6c | 216.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked SS Lazio | 18c | 161.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked SS Lazio | 18c | 161.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked SS Lazio | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…d4cebacked SS Lazio | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed SS Lazio | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0677…2a28backed SS Lazio | 18c | 61.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed SS Lazio | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)this page
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.