Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c2499b396ddd1107ee5d976d70c18c5ab75a4d2693e8531d21b7cf70a617354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 4,838$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.86 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 72c | 1,507$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.68 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 1,080$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.16 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Over | 63c | 1,025$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 29c | 687.52$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.66 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 45c | 511.44$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 491.63$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.16 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 70c | 347$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 79c | 265.12$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 28c | 228.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692f…6455backed Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +179.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…3d32backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 180.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 46c | 167.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 69c | 143.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 74c | 135.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…2ec9backed Over | 74c | 135.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80b…6fe4backed Over | 71c | 133.83$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970e…613ebacked Over | 53c | 129.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 28c | 111.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 31c | 94.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…b8ecbacked Over | 69c | 94.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked Under | 36c | 93.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…aa7dbacked Over | 61c | 91.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 55c | 73.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Over | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 71c | 72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Under | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 64.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 54c | 62.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 57c | 61.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 70c | 60.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Over | 57c | 47.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 54c | 45.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0b41backed Under | 45c | 44.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…5273backed Under | 38c | 39.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 29c | 35.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Under | 47c | 32.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 41c | 32.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Under | 48c | 30.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 74c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78aa…a384backed Over | 56c | 26.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked Over | 71c | 21.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c2…2effbacked Over | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Over | 71c | 20.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Over | 69c | 20.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.