Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01b77b1bc6360d549a3d383d574d089688d815d7c6ee820f434c37048a77d707
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 18c | 1,500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 22c | 1,364$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 24c | 950$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Under | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 21c | 560$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…b565backed Under | 79c | 560$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 22c | 534.96$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.94 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 355.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 15c | 299.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 23c | 208$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Over | 24c | 201.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 200.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked Over | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 23c | 146.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Under | 78c | 128.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 133 | 66.2%88 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 13c | 112.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 16c | 111.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed Over | 13c | 109.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 76c | 99.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Over | 24c | 95.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 23c | 90.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 78c | 63.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Under | 73c | 61.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Over | 24c | 57.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 26c | 44.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 43.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Under | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…d0bfbacked Under | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…333fbacked Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 77c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 77c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…b34dbacked Under | 79c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 77c | 21.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…1fe9backed Under | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)US Cremonese won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: US Cremonese (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.