TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Sion: Facundo Mena vs Juan Manuel La Serna

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Juan Manuel La Sernaof Facundo Mena, Juan Manuel La Serna
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,940
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,940 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5818…5269backed Juan Manuel La Serna55c5,388$2,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.748933.7%30 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Facundo Mena35c4,496$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.518,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Facundo Mena12c3,172$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Facundo Mena30c2,094$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.833,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Juan Manuel La Serna74c1,556$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.775,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Facundo Mena25c1,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.9951744.7%231 W · 286 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2cd…841dbacked Facundo Mena6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010122.8%23 W · 78 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Facundo Mena32c943.34$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.852,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Juan Manuel La Serna54c661.33$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.481,30838.9%509 W · 799 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Facundo Mena53c654.64$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.463,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b0…5294backed Juan Manuel La Serna60c650$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26045850.7%232 W · 226 L-1.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Facundo Mena7c584.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.968,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ef…ff5ebacked Juan Manuel La Serna46c580.43$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.431346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2de6…fb10backed Facundo Mena55c436.55$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24045256.2%254 W · 198 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Juan Manuel La Serna75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Facundo Mena55c389.12$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.021,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Juan Manuel La Serna58c341.06$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5864837.5%243 W · 405 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Juan Manuel La Serna45c288.89$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.891,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Facundo Mena55c280.31$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.171,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf182…112bbacked Juan Manuel La Serna45c280.31$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.1730150.2%151 W · 150 L-15.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Facundo Mena17c223.02$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.653,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Juan Manuel La Serna59c195.64$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.551,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Facundo Mena55c189.05$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9885748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Juan Manuel La Serna69c186.23$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.548,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna55c183$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.656,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Juan Manuel La Serna60c181.48$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.951,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Facundo Mena57c144$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.284,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Facundo Mena7c140.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.381,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Juan Manuel La Serna75c128.59$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.157,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Facundo Mena17c115.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Facundo Mena54c110.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6035164.7%227 W · 124 L+20.8wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Juan Manuel La Serna45c108$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7230132.9%99 W · 202 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cf…d3aebacked Juan Manuel La Serna46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5444946.1%207 W · 242 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfcd…e73fbacked Juan Manuel La Serna44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1810240.2%41 W · 61 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd574…1627backed Juan Manuel La Serna65c91.89$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Facundo Mena54c90$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.627744.4%123 W · 154 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed Facundo Mena35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017936.9%66 W · 113 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ca1…4268backed Facundo Mena55c64.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515531.6%49 W · 106 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Juan Manuel La Serna49c58.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4278838.2%301 W · 487 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked Facundo Mena56c54.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4734864.1%223 W · 125 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7b…f972backed Juan Manuel La Serna48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0812742.5%54 W · 73 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Facundo Mena52c50.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.252,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked Facundo Mena55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.511929.4%35 W · 84 L-17.1wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-35.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x379f…7d70backed Facundo Mena56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2821056.2%118 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf657…f3f8backed Juan Manuel La Serna45c46.67$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.671070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Facundo Mena53c33.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8255347.6%263 W · 290 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Juan Manuel La Serna36c31.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.381,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b56…a082backed Facundo Mena55c31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0542563.3%269 W · 156 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Juan Manuel La Serna43c25.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.442,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Juan Manuel La Serna47c22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.662,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf86…687ebacked Facundo Mena56c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.