Tennis · resolved market
Sion: Facundo Mena vs Juan Manuel La Serna
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d3080255a8dd5bce8e414f457dfe94c5d32cf56687cadc27c8974eb07a94482
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Manuel La Sernaof Facundo Mena, Juan Manuel La Serna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5818…5269backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 55c | 5,388$2,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.74 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Facundo Mena | 35c | 4,496$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.51 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Facundo Mena | 12c | 3,172$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.8 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Facundo Mena | 30c | 2,094$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.83 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 74c | 1,556$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.77 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e0…2e6bbacked Facundo Mena | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.99 | 517 | 44.7%231 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…841dbacked Facundo Mena | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Facundo Mena | 32c | 943.34$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.85 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 54c | 661.33$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.48 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Facundo Mena | 53c | 654.64$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.46 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b0…5294backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 60c | 650$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 458 | 50.7%232 W · 226 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Facundo Mena | 7c | 584.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ff5ebacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 580.43$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…fb10backed Facundo Mena | 55c | 436.55$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 452 | 56.2%254 W · 198 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Facundo Mena | 55c | 389.12$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.02 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 58c | 341.06$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.58 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 45c | 288.89$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Facundo Mena | 55c | 280.31$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf182…112bbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 45c | 280.31$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.17 | 301 | 50.2%151 W · 150 L | -15.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Facundo Mena | 17c | 223.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 59c | 195.64$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Facundo Mena | 55c | 189.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 69c | 186.23$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 55c | 183$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 60c | 181.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Facundo Mena | 57c | 144$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Facundo Mena | 7c | 140.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 75c | 128.59$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Facundo Mena | 17c | 115.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Facundo Mena | 54c | 110.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 45c | 108$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 301 | 32.9%99 W · 202 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 449 | 46.1%207 W · 242 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…e73fbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…1627backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 65c | 91.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Facundo Mena | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Facundo Mena | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 36.9%66 W · 113 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Facundo Mena | 55c | 64.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 155 | 31.6%49 W · 106 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 49c | 58.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Facundo Mena | 56c | 54.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 348 | 64.1%223 W · 125 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…f972backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Facundo Mena | 52c | 50.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Facundo Mena | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -17.1wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed Facundo Mena | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…f3f8backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 45c | 46.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Facundo Mena | 53c | 33.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 36c | 31.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Facundo Mena | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 425 | 63.3%269 W · 156 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 43c | 25.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf86…687ebacked Facundo Mena | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.