Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d37a013e90bf5eb83b3e1ecc437c5de8430b2b53e3d2c9e6a1ced64d48fbc19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 482.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 11c | 326.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.9 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 39c | 315.66$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.99 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 263.61$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 18c | 220.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 15c | 197.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 170.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 8c | 145.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.05 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 76c | 144.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 142.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 75c | 116$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 35c | 109.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 19c | 108.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 108.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 72c | 93.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 29c | 82.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 34c | 79.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 68c | 69.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 64.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 18c | 61.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 32c | 58.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 35c | 56.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 29c | 54.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 25c | 53.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 52.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 50.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 45.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 72c | 42.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 67c | 39.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 34.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 40c | 34.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 76c | 31.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…85d5backed No | 73c | 31.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 50c | 30.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…3c9fbacked Yes | 78c | 30.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 74c | 25.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 47c | 22.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef8…3b22backed Yes | 79c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…9020backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.