Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4558ee84238ddd4c91d4aa272e87973d00be4acdf1e51b16a30ca156758933ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb51…aee5backed Yes | 7c | 429.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 360$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 67c | 344.73$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 32c | 195$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 140.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 130.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 9c | 114.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 32c | 101.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 97.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 33c | 96.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 32c | 93.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 16c | 92.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 73.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 73.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes | 33c | 68.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 65c | 53.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 48.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 36.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 35.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 35.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 67c | 27.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 24.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 80c | 22.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 16.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.