Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41407b7426878af8db0755bd29b4c3567bef1a572f8780b8c640f7970193fc1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0462…8374backed Yes | 2c | 709.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 706.1$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.34 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 612.58$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 302.88$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 76c | 200.4$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 181.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 170.9$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 155.28$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 147$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 118.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 20c | 114.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 113.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 107.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 104.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 34c | 84.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 36c | 83.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7d9abacked Yes | 21c | 75.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 65.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 60.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 59.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 58.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 56.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 36c | 55.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 53.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 52.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 57c | 52.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 51.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…2005backed Yes | 31c | 48.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…6805backed No | 60c | 48.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 73c | 44.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 38c | 42.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 35.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 62c | 33.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 32.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 61c | 27.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 19.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 19.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.