Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d3f63d2602e8cfd3b9babcd85b0b8bf7b1d64a215f0702df7b570ca1e063581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7385…18b2backed Yes | 0c | 5,901$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 865.98$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 21c | 837.74$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.83 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 634.84$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 57c | 624.58$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.49 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 489.61$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 67c | 481.57$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.53 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 387.07$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 371.96$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 283$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 20c | 254.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 215.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 214$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 203.1$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 186$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 182.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 48c | 180.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 27c | 159.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 34c | 141$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 140.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 32c | 135.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 125.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 65c | 122.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 113.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 35c | 109.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 104.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 27c | 94.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 32c | 93.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 91.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 90.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 44c | 89.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 76.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 32c | 74.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 63.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 25c | 55.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 52.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc899…961abacked Yes | 36c | 46.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 79c | 45.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 45.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1280…6c68backed Yes | 45c | 40.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 39.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…ae3ebacked No | 66c | 37.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 72c | 35.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 35.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…559ebacked No | 66c | 34.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 47c | 33.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 40c | 26.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed No | 66c | 25.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 67c | 24.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 23.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 68c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 59c | 20.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 20.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…529cbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.