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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,511 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9726…1b0dbacked No0c5,306$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.882941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c358.58$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.7610,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes30c352.82$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.157726%20 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes32c261.13$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.162,23023.8%531 W · 1,699 L+89.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes67c251.8$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8414332.2%46 W · 97 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c215$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.358,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes29c196.76$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6347436.7%174 W · 300 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No61c185.83$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.111,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No71c183.1$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13047758.7%280 W · 197 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes17c176.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4318157.5%104 W · 77 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes29c175$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.781,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No78c155.4$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2135283.8%295 W · 57 L+39.0wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No23c155.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.282,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed Yes31c154.87$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2517262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.51,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes27c147.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4276322.9%175 W · 588 L-34.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c95…52dbbacked No67c141.92$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6818947.6%90 W · 99 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No73c136.07$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.332,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes27c123.57$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.176,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No71c111.26$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.562960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes27c110$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7914262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes22c107.1$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8760032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b98…925ebacked Yes34c103.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4414943.6%65 W · 84 L+15.7wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+163.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes28c103.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2553548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc60…ce27backed No58c100.12$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.951752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03b4…8706backed Yes35c99.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.992722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No66c98.03$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9316958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes28c96.45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.542630.3%129 W · 297 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c92.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.627,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes45c88.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6452347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No74c80$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.235648.6%173 W · 183 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No79c73.49$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.75,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No66c72.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.071,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes26c70.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.384,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ed…4432backed No68c70.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.842817.9%5 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeec7…2fa1backed No71c70.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.386864.7%44 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No60c69.22$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8812,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x150a…b6b1backed No74c65.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.683923.1%9 W · 30 L-9.4wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-65.3%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes55c63.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.476,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92c4…db23backed No27c61.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.451553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No62c57.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.261,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No70c54.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.132,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes76c52.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5864976.9%499 W · 150 L+100.8wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+32.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed No70c49.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9932382%265 W · 58 L+32.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed Yes27c47.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.821146.9%99 W · 112 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes21c47.46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.267532%24 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes41c45.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1637843.7%165 W · 213 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bcd…57a4backed Yes24c43$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.75475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+163.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No72c42.66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7225158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes29c42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.821,82662.9%1,149 W · 677 L-8.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No75c42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.591,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No77c40.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.592,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed No74c40.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023248.3%112 W · 120 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No61c40.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.572,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17b6…af55backed No59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-54.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e8b…b7b8backed No32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.66040%24 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes68c39.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.84,03235.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L+42.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8966…3476backed No70c39.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.091850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+186.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61dd…cbd8backed No71c34.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.696261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No34c34.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8739155.2%216 W · 175 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No72c34.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.942,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No77c32.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1648546%223 W · 262 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No49c31.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5398651.1%504 W · 482 L-49.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes69c30.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.446,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98565.9%56 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x579f…3803backed No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52060%12 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No73c29.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.331,33550.9%680 W · 655 L-35.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No60c27.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.349363.5%313 W · 180 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No71c27.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.122,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f07…7573backed Yes53c26.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.383928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa629…d303backed Yes69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed No73c23.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9926253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No76c22.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No66c21.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed No74c21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.548856.8%50 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No73c20.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2432846.6%153 W · 175 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59a…0b67backed No72c20.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.531693.8%15 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick72cpaid+31.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x69a7…7fd5backed No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.89273.9%68 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81,15857.1%661 W · 497 L-45.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafcc…dd1dbacked No61c19.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed No64c17.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.528557.6%49 W · 36 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+36.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No72c17.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.792,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No74c17.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91,42131.1%442 W · 979 L-93.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No71c17.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.042,22659.1%1,316 W · 910 L+110.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked No72c16.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.658247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No71c14.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.082,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.