Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d45005d66ffe99994b9ceb59095285388700088e46c2336b282e05d4518107b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked No | 0c | 5,306$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 358.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.76 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 30c | 352.82$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.15 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 261.13$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.16 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 67c | 251.8$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 215$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 29c | 196.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.63 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 185.83$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 71c | 183.1$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 17c | 176.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.43 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 29c | 175$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.78 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 78c | 155.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 155.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 31c | 154.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 27c | 147.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 67c | 141.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 136.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 123.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 111.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 22c | 107.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 34c | 103.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +15.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +163.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 28c | 103.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed No | 58c | 100.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b4…8706backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 66c | 98.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 28c | 96.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 92.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 45c | 88.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 73.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 72.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 70.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed No | 68c | 70.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 71c | 70.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 69.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 74c | 65.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -9.4wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 63.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…db23backed No | 27c | 61.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 62c | 57.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 54.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 76c | 52.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 27c | 47.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 21c | 47.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 41c | 45.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcd…57a4backed Yes | 24c | 43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 72c | 42.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 75c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 40.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 74c | 40.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 40.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +186.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 71c | 34.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 34c | 34.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 391 | 55.2%216 W · 175 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 34.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 77c | 32.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 485 | 46%223 W · 262 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 49c | 31.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 69c | 30.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 29.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 60c | 27.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 27.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 53c | 26.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…d303backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 73c | 23.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 22.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 21.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 73c | 20.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…0b67backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…dd1dbacked No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed No | 64c | 17.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 17.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 74c | 17.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 17.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 72c | 16.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 14.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.