Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59336aadd61e4d83fb1b63f82bb758c2d4640e6e01aa50b42b2fa00e5df07747
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03b4…8706backed Yes | 5c | 1,017$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 663.08$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.98 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 640.65$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…e136backed Yes | 71c | 500.86$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.9 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 20c | 430.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 16c | 300.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 25c | 244.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 218.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 68c | 208.64$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 23c | 207.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 48c | 206.34$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 50c | 194.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed Yes | 19c | 191.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 173.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 19c | 150.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 131.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 78c | 126.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 112.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 110.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bb09backed Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Yes | 22c | 108.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 28c | 102.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 49c | 98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 91.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 79c | 91.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 22c | 90.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 22c | 86.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 45c | 82.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 81.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 80.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 49c | 77.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 36c | 77.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 68.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 63.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 20c | 61.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 23c | 58.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…3fefbacked Yes | 23c | 54.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 22c | 54.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 76c | 53.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 75c | 50.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 69c | 48.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 71c | 43.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…031abacked Yes | 26c | 40.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 43c | 33.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 33.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 32.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 39c | 32.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 38c | 31.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…8d44backed No | 78c | 31.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 74c | 27.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 26.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 25.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 73c | 23.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 67c | 23.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…8919backed Yes | 74c | 21.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 52c | 19.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 16.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.