Asian League · resolved market
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d4714f69da781536f0315c68689663cbcb9d0e83b21d32d01c22353519e6fa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 35c | 16,643$5,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,891.95 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Over | 56c | 12,704$7,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,638.4 | 193 | 40.9%79 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 66c | 9,243$6,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,140.67 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 9,096$4,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,239.11 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 44c | 6,012$2,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,634.74 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 5,032$1,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.9 | 1,306 | 56.9%743 W · 563 L | +67.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 61c | 3,943$2,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.04 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 52c | 2,713$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.39 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Over | 52c | 1,968$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.64 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 53c | 1,402$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.04 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Over | 64c | 1,274$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.04 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +151%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 283 | 32.5%92 W · 191 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 53c | 1,122$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.19 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 61c | 1,077$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.86 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 51c | 876.96$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.12 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 683.64$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.08 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 64c | 519.76$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 41c | 485.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Over | 51c | 480.79$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.59 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 43c | 437.94$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.59 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Under | 30c | 333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…1444backed Under | 40c | 293.78$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 4c | 285.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Under | 40c | 251$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 56c | 210$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 20c | 149.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…4ee1backed Under | 40c | 149$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 45c | 147.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 48c | 140.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 313 | 59.7%187 W · 126 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 46c | 133.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 70c | 123.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Over | 30c | 123.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 67c | 98.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 45c | 92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked Under | 40c | 85.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 60c | 72.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 50c | 71.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 71c | 70.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Under | 39c | 52.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 58c | 47.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf98…0924backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 68c | 35.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 41c | 34.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 735 | 38.6%284 W · 451 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9891…8949backed Under | 46c | 27.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 43c | 26.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 192 | 56.8%109 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 57c | 26.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +7.1wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +8.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 71c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Liaoning Tieren FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)Liaoning Tieren FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.