UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5da8ea8bf72f62bf93374f78e4e1cbcc0e078cdb3edaebbd5b2691398ba57fc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 53c | 102,031$54,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,076.59 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 66,879$31,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,445.87 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Over | 47c | 12,838$6,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,804.3 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 47c | 11,568$5,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,131.04 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…d3eabacked Over | 47c | 6,500$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,445 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 47c | 1,060$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.8 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Over | 47c | 907$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.71 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Over | 47c | 765.96$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Over | 47c | 412$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 47c | 412$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.36 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Over | 47c | 272.34$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over | 58c | 172.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Under | 47c | 172$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 43c | 171.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 45c | 131.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 39c | 105.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Under | 47c | 96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 54c | 94.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Over | 55c | 92.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Over | 52c | 80.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…24b8backed Over | 52c | 75.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ced…393ebacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fa…88eabacked Over | 56c | 44.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…3716backed Over | 52c | 44.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cd…b42ebacked Over | 50c | 40.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 37.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 33c | 30.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…909dbacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…ed93backed Over | 46c | 23.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55a…030ebacked Under | 54c | 21.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…98bcbacked Under | 54c | 20.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…ee7dbacked Under | 54c | 18.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 56c | 18.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Angel Pacheco vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)Luna won
- Will Santiago Luna win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.