UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Angel Pacheco vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66ddb8fc4673e10b16a45ef7b99ba659daf7c449e06415bb30562c6d32bb8290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lunaof Pacheco, Luna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Pacheco | 9c | 12,533$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.67 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Pacheco | 14c | 5,426$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.11 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Pacheco | 2c | 4,188$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Pacheco | 14c | 3,571$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Pacheco | 16c | 3,520$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.4 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Pacheco | 5c | 2,738$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pacheco | 9c | 2,567$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Pacheco | 16c | 2,236$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.34 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Pacheco | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Pacheco | 11c | 1,916$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.71 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Pacheco | 4c | 1,875$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacheco | 13c | 1,834$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.43 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Pacheco | 5c | 1,720$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Pacheco | 1c | 1,528$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pacheco | 5c | 1,514$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pacheco | 10c | 1,138$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Pacheco | 13c | 1,048$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.23 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Pacheco | 14c | 739.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Pacheco | 12c | 676.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Pacheco | 14c | 530.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Pacheco | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Luna | 79c | 414.36$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Pacheco | 8c | 390$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…4ce6backed Pacheco | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663d…7d23backed Pacheco | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Pacheco | 14c | 345$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d05…6f11backed Pacheco | 7c | 335$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Pacheco | 10c | 319.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Pacheco | 14c | 310.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Pacheco | 17c | 295$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Pacheco | 11c | 277.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Pacheco | 18c | 272.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…9ab2backed Pacheco | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Pacheco | 12c | 251.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Pacheco | 14c | 248.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Pacheco | 9c | 233.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Pacheco | 5c | 223.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Pacheco | 20c | 221.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Pacheco | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…af29backed Pacheco | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…442cbacked Pacheco | 13c | 184.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed Pacheco | 17c | 177.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ea…1a3ebacked Pacheco | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Pacheco | 17c | 164.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Pacheco | 16c | 149.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pacheco | 15c | 127.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d83…8673backed Luna | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…1b26backed Pacheco | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Pacheco | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…d08abacked Pacheco | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Pacheco | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…b6c9backed Pacheco | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…262bbacked Pacheco | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Pacheco | 23c | 84.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…daecbacked Pacheco | 19c | 80.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Luna | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Pacheco | 19c | 74.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…af65backed Pacheco | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…71c5backed Pacheco | 23c | 60.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Angel Pacheco vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Santiago Luna win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.