Tennis · resolved market
Quebec City: Jacob Fearnley vs Alexis Galarneau
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dca03512ce5c46f6c2014f18ae2caaae13655bd4b7ad52775a7e2199f2075ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jacob Fearnleyof Jacob Fearnley, Alexis Galarneau
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Alexis Galarneau | 7c | 15,160$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.76 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Alexis Galarneau | 2c | 6,062$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.23 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf3…e802backed Alexis Galarneau | 3c | 5,500$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 477 | 28.1%134 W · 343 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Alexis Galarneau | 27c | 5,000$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.98 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…77abbacked Jacob Fearnley | 77c | 3,498$2,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.56 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Alexis Galarneau | 8c | 2,851$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.11 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Alexis Galarneau | 4c | 2,759$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 32.4%137 W · 286 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Alexis Galarneau | 6c | 2,078$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Alexis Galarneau | 33c | 1,080$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.4 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Alexis Galarneau | 11c | 1,001$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…340bbacked Alexis Galarneau | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79b…b9eebacked Jacob Fearnley | 72c | 967.5$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Alexis Galarneau | 28c | 759.71$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Alexis Galarneau | 3c | 743.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Alexis Galarneau | 30c | 671.62$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.34 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 650$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 369 | 46.9%173 W · 196 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alexis Galarneau | 9c | 607.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Jacob Fearnley | 79c | 430.25$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Alexis Galarneau | 33c | 234.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Jacob Fearnley | 67c | 230.89$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 191$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Alexis Galarneau | 21c | 179.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Jacob Fearnley | 68c | 171.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Alexis Galarneau | 28c | 151.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…e84cbacked Jacob Fearnley | 68c | 150.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 302 | 68.9%208 W · 94 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Alexis Galarneau | 12c | 148.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Alexis Galarneau | 10c | 122.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 309 | 31.1%96 W · 213 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Jacob Fearnley | 68c | 107.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Alexis Galarneau | 13c | 104.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Alexis Galarneau | 30c | 100.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Jacob Fearnley | 72c | 94.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Jacob Fearnley | 68c | 73.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f9…d394backed Jacob Fearnley | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Alexis Galarneau | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,077 | 52.4%564 W · 513 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Alexis Galarneau | 29c | 39.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Jacob Fearnley | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Jacob Fearnley | 71c | 29.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1,021 | 57.8%590 W · 431 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Jacob Fearnley | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Jacob Fearnley | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…af6bbacked Jacob Fearnley | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Jacob Fearnley | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.