MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de2ddc0efa2c482415cc3fbdfefd077dac4aa32ba2245b0f6e1531279aab6d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Over | 48c | 1,825$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 928$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 52c | 547.71$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.9 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 463.19$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 48c | 335.54$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.06 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 48c | 325.15$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.07 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 285$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 279.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Over | 48c | 271.56$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 48c | 241.54$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 52c | 232.19$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 52c | 220.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 48c | 205.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…9e59backed Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 52c | 144.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 131$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 129.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 15c | 118.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 85.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 70.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…e9d9backed Under | 57c | 60.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 43c | 55.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…3eefbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…7d66backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c0…01e0backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 47c | 33.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 56c | 28.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.