MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72bc529b9c56d77d130d9d149c5b8c842f199c84080180ed4e2c93ac63d40ffc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 1,570$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.7 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 1,002$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.75 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 649.11$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 499.97$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 220$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 217.42$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 204.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 196$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 196$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2f…0040backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 181.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 122.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…0dbbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 113.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 102$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 58.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 49.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…64b7backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 46.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 27.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 25.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 25.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.