TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,426
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,426 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x060f…5a9dbacked No51c7,676$3,952 inWon+$3,724.671952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Yes48c4,000$1,920 inLost-$1,9201,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes50c746.4$377 inLost-$376.5534044.4%151 W · 189 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes48c600$288 inLost-$28848653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes49c539.23$264 inLost-$264.2216746.7%78 W · 89 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes52c536.98$279 inLost-$279.081,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed Yes48c500$240 inLost-$24022638.5%87 W · 139 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked No74c493.49$363 inWon+$130.445,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes52c425$220 inLost-$220.42,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes50c230.99$116 inLost-$115.838,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed No48c205.33$99 inWon+$106.7732152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes26c183.08$48 inLost-$47.61,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0188…afc3backed Yes29c180$51 inLost-$51.354252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes48c146$70 inLost-$70.081,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Yes51c140$71 inLost-$71.41,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes50c136$68 inLost-$68.482,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed No48c118.47$57 inWon+$61.61,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes26c87.23$23 inLost-$22.683,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Yes26c83.08$22 inLost-$21.61,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No49c75$37 inWon+$38.251,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d8…400bbacked Yes50c65.64$33 inLost-$32.5211843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Yes51c51.78$27 inLost-$26.5652852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Yes53c48$25 inLost-$25.4428147.7%134 W · 147 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed No48c41.67$20 inWon+$21.6728639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes51c35$18 inLost-$17.8545045.8%206 W · 244 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.