Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dfa79bb9aefcf33852a0a81353bcaa26a0578e3172488aad82710e3ba41d308
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 74c | 377.93$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 290.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 16c | 264.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 58c | 179.81$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 78c | 178.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 11c | 136.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 70c | 130$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 129.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 116.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 76c | 114.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 108.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 108.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 101$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 31c | 93.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 28c | 86.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 85.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 76.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 68.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 59.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 57.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 47.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 46.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 30c | 46.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 30c | 45.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 32c | 38.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 36.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 36.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…1af3backed No | 40c | 31.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 28.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 39c | 27.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed Yes | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 74c | 24.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 24.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 73c | 20.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 52c | 20.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 59c | 17.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 15.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.