Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ebca225600c1a2727f3d4c33b0dcd5d48518f6d25d12de7b9e5c58cae44c972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 261.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 58c | 255.36$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 66c | 248.35$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.63 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 224.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 38c | 216.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.23 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 176.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.15 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 150.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 144.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 135.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 111.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 37c | 99.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 90.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 63c | 52.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…b8c4backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 52c | 43.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 40.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 36.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 31.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 41c | 28.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 50c | 28.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 47c | 24.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 44c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 24.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 80c | 15.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 80c | 13.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.