Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e064546a4295908668f79e2032a9183b0a35d9510bad51f704a2786a4c144cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 711.56$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 613.66$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 249.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 40c | 228.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 8c | 188.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 164.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 9c | 154.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 36c | 142.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 38c | 119.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 118.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 32c | 109.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 47c | 100.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…cb18backed Yes | 20c | 98.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 20c | 91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 72c | 90.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 59c | 90.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 69c | 80.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 76.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 65.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 60.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 63c | 57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 56c | 52.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 77c | 51.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3364…5effbacked Yes | 23c | 47.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…b25bbacked No | 77c | 45.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 66c | 40.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 40.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 58c | 35.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 44c | 33.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 36c | 31.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 77c | 26.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 78c | 24.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b81…cdc0backed No | 66c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 60c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 16.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.