Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd30fe20cafdb8daef8adde7caa3072ce146f5a8517cd2f0d1f5757ecda696c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 845.19$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.85 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 278.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 31c | 269.52$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.29 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 33c | 224.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.28 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 214.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 177.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 135$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 45c | 134.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 126.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 123.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 118.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 57c | 105.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 31c | 104.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked No | 74c | 103.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 72c | 100.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 89.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 62c | 87.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 86.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 16c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 35c | 78.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 29c | 76.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 75.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 74.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 71.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 63.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 63.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 70c | 61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 60.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 60.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 70c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed No | 71c | 54.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 20c | 54.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…7058backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 52.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…f2fabacked Yes | 38c | 52.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 51.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 50.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 30c | 50.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c0a7backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 66c | 45.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 48c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 53c | 42.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked No | 62c | 40.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 38.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…4551backed Yes | 52c | 38.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 38.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 40c | 33.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 67c | 24.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 64c | 23.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 50c | 22.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 22.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 22.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 20.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 19.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 65c | 19.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 68c | 17.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.