Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e06b3f02b8a02d4c7ef407dc4c015eee6bb479461754cee2e20d539ea625128
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 729.31$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 435$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 68c | 430.3$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.47 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 414.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes | 11c | 210.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.25 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 64c | 209.91$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.58 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 15c | 188.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 13c | 186.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.83 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 172$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 16c | 142.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 11c | 113.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 14c | 108.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…2e69backed Yes | 19c | 101.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +434.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 15c | 101.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 22c | 98.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 16c | 98.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 17c | 95.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 16c | 91.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 82.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 22c | 81.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 13c | 80.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 80.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 36c | 77.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 76c | 73.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 62c | 73.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 16c | 70.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 66.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 62.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 24c | 62.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 56.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 79c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 44c | 42.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 35.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 34.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 75c | 33.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 48c | 32.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 80c | 28.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 74c | 26.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 80c | 19.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 16.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.