Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79353291f8ed3e82f7509831e41935876f994269cc60b00ac9a7915cc25f168e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,752$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.3 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 26c | 1,447$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 19c | 648.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 509.53$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 26c | 506.3$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 503.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 493.4$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 458.09$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 323.7$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 24c | 286.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 285.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 18c | 234.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 24c | 227.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 22c | 220.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 27c | 207.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes | 22c | 203.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 21c | 166.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 164.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 157.84$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 28c | 155$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 146.41$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 143.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes | 15c | 132.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 26c | 127.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 122.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 109.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 25c | 109.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 108.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 100.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…17b9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 14c | 98.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 23c | 93.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…9909backed Yes | 22c | 90.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…d7cbbacked Yes | 24c | 85.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229a…2a75backed Yes | 24c | 84.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 22c | 82.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 21c | 81.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 22c | 77.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 16c | 75.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 74.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 72.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 70.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 70.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 23c | 66.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c46…0a9cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…7f2bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 24c | 61.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 73c | 61.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…a97abacked Yes | 21c | 60.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98d…5a68backed Yes | 22c | 59.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 55.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 23c | 50.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 20c | 50.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 79c | 47.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 43.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 43.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 42.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…97e0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 78c | 35.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 34.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 73c | 33.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 78c | 31.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 24.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 79c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 69c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 75c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 80c | 13.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.