TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,679 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes23c1,752$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.331043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes26c1,447$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3701,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed Yes19c648.38$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.2316129.2%47 W · 114 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c509.53$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.034,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e3…ab49backed Yes26c506.3$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.47138%27 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c503.61$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.118,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c493.4$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.373,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No74c458.09$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.182,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No78c323.7$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.764,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbce…507dbacked Yes24c286.25$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.77832.1%25 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c285.05$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.39,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes18c234.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.321,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes24c227.89$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.332,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes22c220.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.729960.6%60 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes27c207.56$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0434533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes22c203.06$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.52737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No78c199.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes21c166.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8740535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes7c164.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.992,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No78c157.84$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.961,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes28c155$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.41,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3915950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No78c146.41$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes16c143.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes15c132.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.12114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes26c127.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3819947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No79c122.42$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7744465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No78c109.98$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.241,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes25c109.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2713838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes20c108.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.111,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c100.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2224434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebe…17b9backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes14c98.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.535325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes23c93.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.361,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c93$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.25,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes26c92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.922,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ce…9909backed Yes22c90.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-79%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce2…d7cbbacked Yes24c85.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x229a…2a75backed Yes24c84.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes22c82.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6946240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes21c81.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7315529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes13c79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.291,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes22c77.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6975546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes16c75.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7912334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c74.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.293,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes25c72.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1285330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No79c70.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.922,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No74c70.53$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.342,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes26c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.217324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.12,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes23c66.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0867336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No77c65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.852,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c46…0a9cbacked Yes22c63.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e26…7f2bbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes24c61.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528946%133 W · 156 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No73c61.7$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.732,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee2b…a97abacked Yes21c60.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.33per pick52cpaid+55.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98d…5a68backed Yes22c59.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No79c55.05$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca2…fa31backed Yes23c50.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.543745.9%17 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+48.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes20c50.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1322454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1076936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No76c48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.521,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No79c47.19$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0125766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c44.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c43.57$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.29,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No78c43.48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.711,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No80c42.42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.482,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf3…ca4abacked No60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…97e0backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6430…fb2fbacked No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.82934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd31d…f8bfbacked No78c35.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.728450%42 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c34.31$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.823,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No73c33.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9638961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No75c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed No78c31.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8611958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6300…41adbacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.472842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.21,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No77c25.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8214161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59047.8%43 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No78c24.15$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.342,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No77c19.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4847175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No79c19.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No69c18.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6921272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No73c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5928456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No78c15.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.42,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.752,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2549675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No75c14.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5958358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No80c13.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.7135344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.