Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e260da23f804f25c73c1dd79939648ae2c089cc7fad2a3481f93aa16ce352d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 361.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 69c | 322.93$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 162.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 157.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 149.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 148.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 140.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 69c | 85.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 79.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 77.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 61.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 34c | 59.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 27c | 58.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 57.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 63c | 52.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 49.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 47.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 61c | 44.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709d…baaabacked Yes | 39c | 43.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 40c | 36.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 35.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 33.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4952…d9b0backed Yes | 39c | 32.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 30.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 71c | 28.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 43c | 27.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 27.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 66c | 25.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 59c | 25.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 24.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 24.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…cbadbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 17.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…99f9backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.