Mls · resolved market
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e5586cf831c5873ebda0c76ba9cb8eaf4303032bc47492a3ba2a4d93eb33446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 13c | 2,342$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.54 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 1,757$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.1 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 78c | 1,650$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.76 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,358$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.64 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 24c | 864.9$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.57 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 76c | 707.99$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…6ca4backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…f3dabacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 323.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 24c | 312.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 21c | 252.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…b3eabacked Yes | 24c | 208.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…f627backed Yes | 24c | 208.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…62dfbacked Yes | 24c | 208.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Yes | 22c | 201.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 188.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 15c | 156.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 80c | 152$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 11c | 151.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 77c | 123.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 121.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Yes | 26c | 106.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 79c | 85.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 18c | 60.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 76c | 56.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…e56cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 21c | 49.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 71c | 21.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 76c | 16.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?this page
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23?Yes won
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-05-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.