MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e5a6085bb9a024fc76f24d5be42e1ad37aa38a9f78b6e6f638bf8744cb2bbe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d7…c9a5backed Houston Astros | 0c | 11,793$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 2,011$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 72c | 886.15$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 861.64$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.14 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 608.39$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.03 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 57c | 497.76$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.72 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 399$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.42 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 279.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.07 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 165.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 162.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.4 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 153.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 151.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 58c | 144.8$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…7e55backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 111.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 58c | 87.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 69.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros | 55c | 52.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 44.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 41.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Houston Astros | 50c | 40.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…db89backed Houston Astros | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 84 | 84.5%71 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Houston Astros | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Houston Astros | 57c | 20.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Houston Astros | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.