TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7c66…db89

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: UFC, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-52.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.27
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$7.77
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.73
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$37.53
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$49.83
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.78
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.76
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.98
All 17 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$18.68
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)backed Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.63
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.69
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.18
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+71.4%+$18.93
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)backed Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$15.71
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$9.49
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)backed Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.97
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$12.42
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)backed Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+134.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Oilers vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$17.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorantlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.