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Tennis · resolved market

Jiujiang: Alex Bolt vs Adam Walton

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Adam Waltonof Alex Bolt, Adam Walton
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$148,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$166,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,206 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Alex Bolt15c12,890$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.119,16136.1%3,309 W · 5,852 L-202.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Alex Bolt19c9,207$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.444,78449.6%2,372 W · 2,412 L+177.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Adam Walton65c8,266$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.0748851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Adam Walton73c7,699$5,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,057.0511,77943.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L+20.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0165…8235backed Alex Bolt41c5,647$2,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,327.915749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Alex Bolt26c5,431$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.76,67850.7%3,387 W · 3,291 L+265.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Adam Walton68c5,393$3,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.013,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Alex Bolt41c3,382$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.516336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Alex Bolt34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0204,09039.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L+95.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Adam Walton75c2,769$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.658,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Adam Walton73c2,195$1,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.364,62667.8%3,135 W · 1,491 L+310.5wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa475…bfe7backed Alex Bolt35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-70.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Adam Walton62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.962061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Alex Bolt36c1,304$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.912,78153.8%1,495 W · 1,286 L+71.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Adam Walton60c1,161$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.491,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Alex Bolt37c1,146$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.021,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Alex Bolt46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50068026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeebe…72f2backed Alex Bolt16c1,083$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6720626.7%55 W · 151 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Alex Bolt39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39025544.7%114 W · 141 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Adam Walton54c999.97$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.9917957%102 W · 77 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Alex Bolt40c940.22$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37841645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Alex Bolt31c898.91$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.655,45556.4%3,074 W · 2,381 L+234.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Alex Bolt35c857.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,88944.8%846 W · 1,043 L+36.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d8…0175backed Alex Bolt1c850$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12450%0 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Adam Walton68c820.27$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.011,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Alex Bolt33c800$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.989,40644.3%4,171 W · 5,235 L-245.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Alex Bolt39c794.7$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.4736032.5%117 W · 243 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Adam Walton60c749.49$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.185,04141.4%2,087 W · 2,954 L-83.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa838…bccebacked Adam Walton70c714.26$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.286264.5%40 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Alex Bolt35c600$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Adam Walton63c572.22$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.7229952.2%156 W · 143 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c4…5e52backed Adam Walton65c517.97$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.974463.6%28 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Adam Walton63c500.73$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.276464.1%41 W · 23 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Alex Bolt39c487.18$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19039431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Adam Walton60c438$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.27,77447.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L+40.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Adam Walton64c421.42$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.311,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Adam Walton60c408.58$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.924,51051.7%2,333 W · 2,177 L+135.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3468…e71ebacked Alex Bolt16c406.06$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645022%11 W · 39 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Alex Bolt38c404.86$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.851,74250.2%875 W · 867 L+31.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Alex Bolt17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6841955.8%234 W · 185 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Alex Bolt33c382$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9854345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Alex Bolt21c377.56$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.662,88149.5%1,427 W · 1,454 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08be…bea8backed Adam Walton67c375.85$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.859374.2%69 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Alex Bolt30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10081933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Adam Walton61c328.02$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.031,88745.8%864 W · 1,023 L+52.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Alex Bolt38c326.71$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4880341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Adam Walton65c323.08$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.081,18762.8%746 W · 441 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Adam Walton64c314.06$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.0643449.1%213 W · 221 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Adam Walton75c313.99$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.783,88555%2,137 W · 1,748 L+111.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Adam Walton64c313.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3618258.8%107 W · 75 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Adam Walton64c313.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1818462%114 W · 70 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Alex Bolt32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10054249.3%267 W · 275 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x473e…c0f6backed Adam Walton70c296.59$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.62733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Alex Bolt34c262.13$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.131,42855%785 W · 643 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Alex Bolt39c256.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Alex Bolt39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9283…ba85backed Adam Walton76c255.48$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.487338.4%28 W · 45 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Alex Bolt31c249.25$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.24,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e08…2ed5backed Alex Bolt38c245.94$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.55100%0 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Adam Walton57c243.56$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.762,15354.1%1,165 W · 988 L-2.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Alex Bolt24c238.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.356,86748.9%3,357 W · 3,510 L+61.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Alex Bolt34c221.36$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,67553.1%889 W · 786 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Alex Bolt31c221.11$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.844,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Alex Bolt46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060641.6%252 W · 354 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5887…994ebacked Adam Walton77c216.18$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3619851%101 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Adam Walton63c213.82$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.1738346.2%177 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Alex Bolt41c212.56$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6554241.5%225 W · 317 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Alex Bolt33c209.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703,45738.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L-15.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a57…7615backed Alex Bolt48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e5b…bb9abacked Adam Walton79c202.53$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.537473%54 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Alex Bolt21c192.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5185624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…986cbacked Adam Walton43c188.37$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3764947.6%309 W · 340 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Adam Walton56c185.87$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8722953.3%122 W · 107 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Alex Bolt43c170$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.682,14556%1,201 W · 944 L+41.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa74c…1f49backed Adam Walton75c166.66$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6614674%108 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick75cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Alex Bolt36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceaa…e18ebacked Alex Bolt14c136.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.072920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Alex Bolt42c135.27$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.482,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…7889backed Adam Walton70c134.11$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6256070.7%396 W · 164 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed Adam Walton61c131.62$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.627357.5%42 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c52…43ebbacked Adam Walton75c127.4$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick69cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Alex Bolt43c117.86$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6825245.2%114 W · 138 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Adam Walton73c111.67$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.631,25752%654 W · 603 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Adam Walton61c109.84$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8421165.4%138 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Adam Walton52c103.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8821949.3%108 W · 111 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Adam Walton69c102.32$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.631,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9712…0c47backed Adam Walton61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398344.6%37 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa864…e47bbacked Adam Walton70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302075%15 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Alex Bolt37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Adam Walton66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0880153.1%425 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Adam Walton44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5639941.9%167 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Alex Bolt35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec44…d3bbbacked Adam Walton78c98.53$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.79966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8e…1d33backed Adam Walton64c96.31$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.675650%28 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Alex Bolt18c94.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.166,79836.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb0…20b4backed Alex Bolt39c91.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3312737.8%48 W · 79 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Adam Walton64c89.41$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.421,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Alex Bolt19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3695846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Adam Walton63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3750958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Alex Bolt38c79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.021,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.