MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd67ea6339005437212628f74fa3b157f2dc8b777b3f160513709c19168a47e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 58c | 3,433$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.08 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 59c | 3,400$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 42c | 1,684$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 41c | 1,630$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.7 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 36c | 1,066$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.58 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 54c | 865.08$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.79 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 42c | 795.6$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.45 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 42c | 795.6$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.45 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 745.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 732.03$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 710$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 54c | 512.54$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.66 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 24c | 471.4$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Over | 60c | 445.2$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 59c | 376.27$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 38c | 361$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.17 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 57c | 258.85$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.54 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 255.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 59c | 172.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Under | 59c | 164.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x392b…f9a5backed Over | 42c | 130$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 115$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 41c | 112.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 59c | 111.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 41c | 100.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 58c | 97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Under | 32c | 85.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Under | 59c | 82.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 62c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…9da8backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…bd32backed Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Over | 42c | 31.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…db89backed Over | 65c | 27.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 44c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.