MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c2d0b376540f166894257a7b5886e14dffbcf70c1ace49a4b7fe93c4aa4997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 8,964$2,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,495.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 7,119$5,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,993.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 2,634$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 646.75$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.99 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 559.49$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 446.25$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 440.04$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Toronto Blue Jays | 5c | 417$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 355$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 304.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 280$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 239$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 197.38$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 177.68$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 175.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 137$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Toronto Blue Jays | 15c | 89.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 81.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2f…6c56backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 76.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 76.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 71.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…c08bbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 49.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 40.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 34.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 33.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0b…9c4ebacked Washington Nationals | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 19.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.