MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd8f09a21ee4836b69c8cd0745d897fd2ad58568b7d8ef0f8dd8b217122ab509
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 3,556$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.88 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 3,265$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.78 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 1,567$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.78 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 75c | 1,079$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 78c | 800$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 492.21$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 377.25$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 110.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Washington Nationals | 79c | 75.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 37.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 37.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Washington Nationals | 78c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.