TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Huzhou: Xinxin Yao vs Rada Zolotareva

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rada Zolotarevaof Xinxin Yao, Rada Zolotareva
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,853 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd995…2b51backed Xinxin Yao12c16,847$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rada Zolotareva68c5,881$3,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.997,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Rada Zolotareva78c2,245$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.14,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Rada Zolotareva73c2,233$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.5980341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Rada Zolotareva76c1,907$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.722,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Rada Zolotareva78c1,690$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.995,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Xinxin Yao8c1,607$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8422113.6%30 W · 191 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Xinxin Yao16c1,521$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25039431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Xinxin Yao26c1,343$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.9166831.3%209 W · 459 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…b1a9backed Xinxin Yao31c1,273$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.033743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Xinxin Yao27c1,236$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.54,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Xinxin Yao31c1,204$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.446,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Xinxin Yao19c1,104$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.068,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Rada Zolotareva70c1,067$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.9241060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Rada Zolotareva70c918.48$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.481,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Xinxin Yao30c833.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Rada Zolotareva70c797.68$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.859,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Xinxin Yao36c776.15$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.096,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8668…7f8fbacked Xinxin Yao29c758.62$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2207560%45 W · 30 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Xinxin Yao28c715.76$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5450644.9%227 W · 279 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Xinxin Yao28c655.08$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.741,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Xinxin Yao26c630$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.861924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Xinxin Yao26c614.17$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6140548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Xinxin Yao11c603.01$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.334,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Xinxin Yao17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10227931.9%89 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Xinxin Yao41c563.17$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5996035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Xinxin Yao13c552.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7075312.2%92 W · 661 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Rada Zolotareva62c551.29$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.553764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Rada Zolotareva59c547.76$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.4254345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde27…2cfdbacked Xinxin Yao41c537.54$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2204247.6%20 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Rada Zolotareva79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10545445.4%206 W · 248 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed Xinxin Yao11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553040%12 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Xinxin Yao19c468.26$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2432031.3%100 W · 220 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4de9…11a3backed Rada Zolotareva77c389.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Xinxin Yao42c354.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15068350.1%342 W · 341 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Rada Zolotareva61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.174,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Rada Zolotareva67c249.8$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.424,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Xinxin Yao41c241.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Xinxin Yao35c231.76$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8042332.4%137 W · 286 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…530fbacked Xinxin Yao28c219.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.79260.9%56 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Xinxin Yao23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011747%55 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8e…1d33backed Xinxin Yao19c210$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.25650%28 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe857…7b3bbacked Xinxin Yao16c187.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3083823.2%194 W · 644 L-58.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a6a…ed83backed Xinxin Yao22c154.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3413432.8%44 W · 90 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Xinxin Yao16c146.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8228348.4%137 W · 146 L+1.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Xinxin Yao19c141.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.483,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Rada Zolotareva79c140.84$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9942344.2%187 W · 236 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Rada Zolotareva80c132.06$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.93,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rada Zolotareva77c130.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.587,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Rada Zolotareva71c128.82$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.36,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Xinxin Yao40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.251,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c66…db89backed Xinxin Yao12c123.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Xinxin Yao43c115$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a6b…68a0backed Xinxin Yao31c106.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Rada Zolotareva66c101.78$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7821949.3%108 W · 111 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Xinxin Yao30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3035436.4%129 W · 225 L-16.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Xinxin Yao22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.951233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Xinxin Yao25c93.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4284640%338 W · 508 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x112e…0d1fbacked Rada Zolotareva75c91.92$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5834965%227 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Rada Zolotareva78c83.69$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.411,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Xinxin Yao33c81.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.992,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebde…1de0backed Xinxin Yao29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.289134.3%306 W · 585 L-40.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Xinxin Yao21c78.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5256817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Rada Zolotareva67c75.71$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.771,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e10…650cbacked Xinxin Yao40c72.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.971323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-49.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x165b…711cbacked Rada Zolotareva58c69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9826953.2%143 W · 126 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Rada Zolotareva78c68.61$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1779951.1%408 W · 391 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked Xinxin Yao44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013545.2%61 W · 74 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Rada Zolotareva74c67.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.522,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…8263backed Rada Zolotareva71c56.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5618559.5%110 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed Xinxin Yao44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2537235.2%131 W · 241 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8314…885fbacked Xinxin Yao29c51.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Rada Zolotareva68c50.05$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.991,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x599c…85f5backed Xinxin Yao40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Rada Zolotareva62c48.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.413,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa516…235cbacked Xinxin Yao39c47.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3317535.4%62 W · 113 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb962…8519backed Xinxin Yao34c47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.862733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf578…4a35backed Rada Zolotareva74c40.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd82d…7882backed Xinxin Yao29c40.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.775137.3%19 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe29…eb76backed Xinxin Yao33c38.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9718330.1%55 W · 128 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2863…1114backed Rada Zolotareva66c38.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.065966.1%39 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4350…4bbabacked Rada Zolotareva67c37.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5230672.9%223 W · 83 L+27.2wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Rada Zolotareva58c33.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.959440.2%239 W · 355 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Rada Zolotareva61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.793,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Xinxin Yao36c32.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6960141.1%247 W · 354 L-11.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x305b…cd21backed Rada Zolotareva69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9955059.1%325 W · 225 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Rada Zolotareva74c28.02$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2912053.3%64 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071f…92bdbacked Rada Zolotareva64c27.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.891,07673.8%794 W · 282 L+41.1wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Rada Zolotareva58c25.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8649943.5%217 W · 282 L+2.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Rada Zolotareva73c23.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2783047%390 W · 440 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ad…5097backed Rada Zolotareva74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1526868.3%183 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a98…639dbacked Rada Zolotareva80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.756250%31 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Rada Zolotareva77c16.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7131563.5%200 W · 115 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d6b…8ffabacked Rada Zolotareva77c16.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.718066.3%53 W · 27 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7353…a4f0backed Rada Zolotareva79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1554050.4%272 W · 268 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0175…69edbacked Rada Zolotareva80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37487.8%65 W · 9 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick71cpaid+24.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x29b7…8d48backed Rada Zolotareva78c14.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.181060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4c…708fbacked Rada Zolotareva79c14.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.