MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddbb4167d59e4d136a34da167fe802998067c334942aced2cb40484b5e01d034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 51c | 4,420$2,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.74 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 43c | 3,624$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.95 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 58c | 3,400$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 2,111$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.26 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 52c | 1,742$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.61 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 49c | 1,490$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.1 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 1,388$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 1,297$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 1,171$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 49c | 1,022$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.78 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 48c | 841.5$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.92 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Over | 9c | 778.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 410.63$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.42 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 49c | 410$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 37c | 300.24$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…6950backed Under | 52c | 213.46$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked Over | 48c | 177.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 43c | 162.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 157.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 129$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 53c | 122.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 118.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 55c | 101.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 31c | 92.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 51c | 92.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 86.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 43c | 85.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 54c | 83.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 73.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 51.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 48c | 44.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 43.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 43c | 43.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f82…91e5backed Over | 47c | 41.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 36.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 48c | 32.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 53c | 31.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 28.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 64c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.