MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e718a86d525b37f3a38b89f31f2756af188f15c9aab1a815cb59806298f43b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 67c | 3,174$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.01 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 2,129$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.36 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 1,714$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.76 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 1,642$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.55 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 30c | 1,053$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.49 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 37c | 827$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.99 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 792.02$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.11 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 30c | 616$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 67c | 606$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 19c | 447$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 14c | 341$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 65c | 318.54$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 282.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 65c | 212.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 63c | 177.05$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 141 | 64.5%91 W · 50 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 17c | 126.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 65c | 106.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 65c | 106.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 72c | 84.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 38c | 54.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…2a2ebacked Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 37c | 39.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Under | 67c | 38.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 37c | 36.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 30c | 34.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 71c | 20.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…86b1backed Under | 70c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.