MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x522c25df87b86d54d6891b1f4a84c5c799542c0aacfa24a81994e3423b190010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 5,352$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,134.21 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 2,642$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.06 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 1,519$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.53 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,393$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.87 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 1,134$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.81 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 899.22$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.43 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 789.52$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.08 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 782$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 319.35$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 287.07$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.37 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 207.93$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 141.67$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 132.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 132.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 131.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 125.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 98.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 95.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…33c9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 22c | 67.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 61.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 51.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 47.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 44.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…fcc6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 43.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 40.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 36.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 35.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 34.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 30.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 27.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 27.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.