Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e8a149eda24b077aed5821df4f7282c2e191c0a5bd1ccdd5b551f8215e866be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 16,249$8,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,674 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 10,527$5,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,284.46 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 9,260$5,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,153.44 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 7,555$3,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,003.77 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 5,780$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,066.55 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 4,187$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200.97 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…a696backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 2,060$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.19 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…edaabacked Natus Vincere | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 1,760$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 1,707$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.68 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 1,432$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.26 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 900.4$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.05 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 896.87$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b00…7cbbbacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 730$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.2 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere | 4c | 640$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 613$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.15 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 612.62$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.17 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 515.9$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…ce53backed Natus Vincere | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Natus Vincere | 6c | 480$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Natus Vincere | 15c | 467.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 459 | 51.9%238 W · 221 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 446.89$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.19 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed Natus Vincere | 12c | 428.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb73b…7155backed Xtreme Gaming | 80c | 376.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Xtreme Gaming | 74c | 375$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…0338backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 372.47$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.03 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 308.23$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.58 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 299.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…e049backed Natus Vincere | 7c | 290.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 227.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…6964backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 202$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…19bbbacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 140.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 103$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Natus Vincere | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…5473backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed Natus Vincere | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…bdd8backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 50.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Xtreme Gaming | 48c | 50.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…bab3backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad4…9484backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc016…8c74backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Xtreme Gaming | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…b2a8backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 41.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…512cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 33.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 28.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 27.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…da3ebacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 22.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…41d4backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 21.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…47fdbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Xtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.