Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbce76d7c23e229d2a25923167fd84ce751722ff5ad4edaada8ceff536c5b1dc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Xtreme Gaming, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Xtreme Gaming | 25c | 26,017$6,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,413.33 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 5,414$2,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.5 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 4,849$2,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.74 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…a75cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 2c | 4,422$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…a696backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 4,100$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 4,004$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.99 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 3,575$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.55 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 2,700$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Xtreme Gaming | 58c | 2,602$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.99 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 1,831$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.21 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 1,702$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.21 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 1,565$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…0338backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 1,312$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.34 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed Xtreme Gaming | 17c | 1,181$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 1,152$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 1,030$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.53 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 1,021$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.87 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 1,000$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.18 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 766.06$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.01 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 48c | 655$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.4 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 595.85$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.15 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…b8b6backed Xtreme Gaming | 15c | 499.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 462.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 10c | 449.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 317.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…9428backed Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 314.84$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4164…5d84backed Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 250.44$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Xtreme Gaming | 27c | 241$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 229.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.55 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed Xtreme Gaming | 16c | 225$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 221.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 459 | 51.9%238 W · 221 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 199.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 173.37$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…8aa8backed Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 157.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…cebcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 9c | 154.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…5d25backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 149.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Xtreme Gaming | 29c | 148.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 133.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…2b38backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…78aebacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 115.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 100.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 100.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 100.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…4bebbacked Xtreme Gaming | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d30…1a5ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 51.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b00…7cbbbacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…28cebacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 42.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…8b6cbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 42.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…090dbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 34.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 28.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…da3ebacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 22.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Xtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.