MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ecd7c0b83cb6a90bf73ef62cb032ffbbb80118ab78ca50c4164ad8a2783137d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 45c | 1,985$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.4 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 1,417$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.77 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 1,162$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.89 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 1,012$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 744.58$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 48c | 711$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.72 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Over | 55c | 605.45$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.45 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 55c | 496.41$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.38 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 495.56$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 487.89$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…f419backed Over | 65c | 446.15$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 45c | 415.4$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.93 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…4ee0backed Over | 56c | 387.22$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.22 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 348.01$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 74c | 332.87$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 55c | 332.79$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 36c | 210.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 200.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 43c | 195.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 192.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 183.77$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 66c | 83.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 55c | 80.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508e…5c09backed Over | 55c | 54.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 43.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 55c | 33.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 78c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1be5…9d53backed Over | 55c | 20.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 16.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.