Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Oksana Selekhmeteva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ef2ef8f91230f6d085fd06ae34e507c44fd09c43595f3d1ca573526c2d537b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Pegula, Selekhmeteva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Selekhmeteva | 5c | 12,575$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.09 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Selekhmeteva | 9c | 7,088$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.81 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Selekhmeteva | 7c | 5,009$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.63 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…097ebacked Selekhmeteva | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Selekhmeteva | 8c | 1,991$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a65…15b1backed Selekhmeteva | 7c | 1,666$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.63 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Selekhmeteva | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Selekhmeteva | 7c | 1,143$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Selekhmeteva | 2c | 1,137$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Selekhmeteva | 7c | 1,101$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Selekhmeteva | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Selekhmeteva | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Selekhmeteva | 11c | 932.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Selekhmeteva | 8c | 871.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Selekhmeteva | 9c | 761.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Selekhmeteva | 2c | 736.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…280ebacked Selekhmeteva | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Selekhmeteva | 3c | 469$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Selekhmeteva | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Selekhmeteva | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Selekhmeteva | 9c | 334.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Selekhmeteva | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Selekhmeteva | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Selekhmeteva | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Selekhmeteva | 5c | 259.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Selekhmeteva | 7c | 226$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Selekhmeteva | 7c | 215$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…59f3backed Selekhmeteva | 10c | 201.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc8…4d6fbacked Selekhmeteva | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Selekhmeteva | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Selekhmeteva | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Selekhmeteva | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Oksana Selekhmetevathis page
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Selekhmeteva (+1.5)Pegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.