NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Falcons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1043f4ce5bf0fe03ad5e4735850301126fb2d1216ad7b7573195a290b62865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Ravens, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Falcons | 15c | 18,567$2,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,859.22 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Ravens | 53c | 6,250$3,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,909.17 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Falcons | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Falcons | 27c | 2,186$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.78 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Falcons | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…969dbacked Ravens | 55c | 260.56$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Ravens | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Falcons | 48c | 238.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Ravens | 54c | 231.56$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Falcons | 46c | 221.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…7ff5backed Ravens | 54c | 201.85$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d7…e09bbacked Falcons | 47c | 201.49$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c3aabacked Ravens | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +153%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Ravens | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Falcons | 48c | 174$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Falcons | 49c | 151.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Falcons | 48c | 149.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…030bbacked Falcons | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Ravens | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Falcons | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Ravens | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c23…6e68backed Ravens | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…3df3backed Falcons | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Ravens | 52c | 91.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…0f73backed Falcons | 49c | 81.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…577abacked Ravens | 52c | 68.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Ravens | 54c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…f10ebacked Falcons | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…bc10backed Ravens | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Falcons | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d7…7ad5backed Ravens | 58c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…40d4backed Ravens | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed Ravens | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Ravens | 52c | 34.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…30e6backed Falcons | 48c | 34.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…e0e8backed Ravens | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Falcons | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8329…266abacked Ravens | 54c | 28.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Ravens | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…b346backed Ravens | 62c | 24.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.